TOP RISKS of 2010 şi responsabilitatea jurnaliştilor din Republica Moldova!

Interesul manifestat de presa de la Chişinău pentru studiile şi analizele de politică externă a crescut foarte mult în ultima perioadă. Cu toate acestea, responsabilitatea faţă de cititori, faţă de consumatorul de ştiri, a scăzut sub nivelul acceptabil.

Sunt o mare consumatoare de ştiri, mai ales a celor ce ţin de politică externă şi a celor care vizează în mod direct spaţiul ex-sovietic (raţiuni profesionale). De obicei atunci când găsesc ceva interesant pe politica externă a Federaţiei Ruse şi a influenţei acesteia în spaţiul ex-sovietic încerc să caut şi alte surse complementare, care să îmi arate un tablou complet sau pur şi simplu verific informaţia, apelând la sursa originală.

Revenind la responsabilitata jurnaliştilor moldoveni: nu există aşa ceva! Pentru aceştia a verifica din trei surse este egal cu a da COPY şi PASTE de pe trei pagini electronice diferite! Lenea este cucoană mare în jurnalismul „moldovican”!

Astăzi Ziarul de Gardă a băgat pe gât cititorilor săi o ştire în care prezintă o analiză a Eurasia Group cu posibile mutaţii la Kremlin în perioada imediat următoare. Totul bine şi frumos! Titlu interesant, conţinut la fel! Doar că aceşti jurnalişti responsabili au uitat să menţioneze că studiul citat de ei a fost elaborat în luna aprilie a anului trecut, iar pe pagina electronică a sursei citate de ei, publicaţia „Vedomosti” nu am găsit nimic cu privire la acest subiect

Dacă Medvedev nu a plecat, Putin nu are unde să revină!


Într-adevăr, în acea perioada (primăvara 2009) la Moscova au avut loc câteva manifestaţii împotriva actualei guvernări (ţinta: politica lui Putin), dar şi speculaţii cu privire la eventuala demisie a preşedintelui rus Dmitrii Medvedev.

Dacă jurnaliştii moldoveni ar fi citit data studiului, s-ar fi uitat la probabilitatea predicţiei, care constituie 20% şi ar mai fi urmărit atent evenimentele de la Moscova ar fi putut să facă o cu totul altfel de ştire prin care ar fi adus la cunoştinţa publicului larg predicţii pentru 2010 nu pentru 2009!

Iată ce prezintă Eurasia Group ca posibil să se întâmple în Federaţia Rusă în 2010:

“This year, Russia gets through the downturn and starts to look stable again. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will feel more confident, and anybody who doesn’t agree with him can leave or face the consequences. The country doesn’t really deserve to be a BRIC, because its longer-term trajectory is more ominous (with a tough geopolitical neighborhood, a precipitously declining population, and negative trends in governance). But for this year, especially with energy prices having doubled off their lows, Russia will go back to being uninteresting.”

Iar aceasta este predicţia pentru Europa de Est:

“Coming out of global recession, historically high levels of unemployment are a critical factor in a solid majority of the world’s economies. But as a political risk, it’s perhaps most worrisome in Eastern Europe--where upcoming elections in a number of key countries materially increase the likelihood of instability.

High unemployment weakens the popularity and limits the flexibility of incumbent governments, making political leaders especially sensitive to domestic economic and social constituencies, and increasingly tempted by protectionist, nativist, and populist policy options. That’s particularly true where elections are on the horizon, as candidates look to channel the frustration and anger of the unemployed. Governments will increasingly come into conflict with monetary authorities and international lenders such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in turn may send very negative signals to capital markets investors...introducing yet another set of risks to financial stability. In Eastern Europe, Ukraine, Hungary and Latvia look the most vulnerable, but even solid regional performers like Poland may face stresses in the coming year. Ukraine’s economic contraction and related jump in unemployment has been dramatic. With two rounds of presidential elections likely in the first quarter of 2010, then perhaps fresh parliamentary elections as well, politicians are under enormous pressure to boost public spending and assist debt-burdened enterprises. But this is all in a context of a crucial IMF agreement and framework that puts serious constraints on public spending in return for loan support and guarantees. Whoever emerges as the president and parliamentary leaders will find it incredibly difficult to balance these two sets of competing demands this year. Hungary’s current government has succeeded in staving off a full blown financial crisis by implementing a series of IMF- and EU-mandated fiscal reforms in the past year. But the economic fundamentals remain weak, unemployment has shot up dramatically, and national parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2010. The leading opposition party, Fidesz, will almost certainly win those elections, but they are already signaling that they want to re-negotiate IMF-EU mandated budget deficit and spending targets for 2010. We also expect a surge of populist and anti-foreigner rhetoric from Fidesz ahead of the elections. Even if the new government responds to market and IMF constraints after it is elected, the election build up will worry investors--a dangerous scenario given Hungary’s fragile standing in markets.

Latvia, the other particularly high-risk country in the region, also has elections due this year, and politicians there will feel similar social pressures. Relative safe havens such as Poland and the Czech Republic will also have noisy (presidential and parliamentary) elections this year. While the political and economic outlook for Poland remains solid, it’s not smooth sailing. If the Polish government’s leading presidential candidate (Donald Tusk) is underwhelming, populist/nationalist opposition politicians will pounce, highlighting the growing unemployment in the region’s largest economy, which may look more vulnerable as a result.”

PS: în Ţara Moldovei responsabilitatea are valoarea ZERO!